Kenya’s Economic Dashboard 2025: Trade, Inflation, and the CBK’s Balancing Act

By Collins Odhiambo Owino
Author | DatalytIQs Academy
Data Sources: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), and the Kenya Data Portal.

Overview

Kenya’s economy in late 2025 stands at a delicate crossroads — balancing price stability, trade deficits, and monetary tightening.
Recent data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) highlight how inflation, lending rates, and foreign exchange movements interact with the nation’s trade patterns.

This analysis covers:

1. Kenya’s trade trends (imports and exports)

2. Inflation and interest rate movement

3. CBK’s monetary policy updates (as of October 2025)

1. Kenya’s Trade Dynamics: Deficit Persists Despite Export Efforts

Between December 2024 and September 2025:

• Total Exports averaged KSh 100 billion per month, led by tea, horticulture, and re-exports.

• Total Imports hovered near KSh 220 billion, mainly industrial inputs, machinery, and fuel.

• The resulting trade deficit ≈ is KSh 120 billion monthly.

Insight:
The persistent deficit weakens the Kenyan shilling, raises import costs, and adds inflationary pressure — directly influencing CBK’s policy stance.

2. Import Origins: Asia Leads by Far

Interpretation:
Asia’s dominance means any shift in Asian manufacturing or shipping costs — particularly in China or India — directly impacts Kenya’s import bill and inflation trends.

3. Inflation and Interest Rates: The Cost of Stability

Inflation:

• Fell sharply from 4.6% (Jun 2024) to 2.7% (Oct 2024), before rebounding to 4.5% (Aug 2025).

• September 2025 inflation stood at 4.58%, comfortably within the CBK’s target range (2.5%–7.5%).

Lending Rates:

• Rose from around 13.2% (2023) to 15.07% (Sep 2025), following CBK’s tightening stance to contain inflation and stabilize the shilling.

4. CBK Key Rates Snapshot (as of October 30, 2025)

Interpretation:

• The high lending rate reflects CBK’s effort to curb inflation without stifling credit to productive sectors.

• Savings and deposit rates remain low, discouraging household savings and keeping liquidity tight in the market.

• The T-bill yield signals attractive short-term government borrowing options compared to commercial lending.

5. How It All Connects

Summary Insight:
Kenya’s 2025 macroeconomic story is one of tightrope balancing — using higher interest rates to fight inflation while managing external shocks from trade deficits and global prices.

For DatalytIQs Academy Learners

This combined dataset (KNBS + CBK) can be analyzed through:

• Python or Excel Dashboards showing trade vs inflation trends.

• Time-Series Forecasting: Use ARIMA or Prophet to project inflation and lending rates.

• Correlation Studies: Examine how the shilling exchange rate affects inflation and imports.

• Policy Simulations: Model effects of interest rate changes on borrowing and investment.

Data Sources and Acknowledgment

Primary Sources:

• Kenya Data Portal – KNBS External Trade and CPI

• Central Bank of Kenya – Key Indicative Rates

Acknowledgment:
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) for maintaining open access to macroeconomic indicators that enhance data-driven learning.

Author: Collins Odhiambo Owino, DatalytIQs Academy