Kenya’s Foreign Trade Trends: A 2025 Mid-Year Analysis

Kenya’s external trade performance in 2025 reflects a complex interplay between domestic demand recovery, global commodity prices, and exchange rate adjustments.
According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Foreign Trade Summary, total exports and imports have remained relatively stable compared to 2024, signaling moderate growth amid global economic uncertainty.

Overview of Kenya’s Trade Performance (January–May 2025)

Total exports (Jan–May 2025) reached 1.25 trillion KES, while imports totaled approximately 1.27 trillion KES, resulting in a cumulative trade deficit of ~26 billion KES.

While Kenya continues to record a negative trade balance, the gap has narrowed slightly compared to the same period in 2024 — indicating improved export performance and moderated import growth.

Key Observations and Trends

🔹 a) Exports Showing Resilience

• Exports grew steadily from KES 231B in February to KES 258B in May 2025 — a 12% increase within four months.

• The growth is driven by strong performance in:

  • Tea, horticulture, and coffee exports, boosted by favorable global commodity prices.

  • Manufactured goods and minerals, reflecting Kenya’s diversification efforts under Vision 2030.

  • Regional trade, particularly with East African Community (EAC) members.

🔹 b) Imports Remain High but Stabilizing

• Imports rose marginally month-to-month, averaging KES 256B, mainly from:

  • Petroleum and industrial inputs, reflecting recovering manufacturing activity.

  • Machinery, vehicles, and electronics, signaling infrastructure, and digital investments.

• Despite global fuel volatility, the shilling’s stabilization near KES 155/USD helped cushion import costs.

🔹 c) Trade Deficit Narrowing

• Kenya’s trade deficit improved from KES 24.79B in October 2024 to around KES 6B in May 2025.

• This is attributed to:

  • Export diversification, especially in agricultural value chains.

  • Decline in non-essential imports following tighter monetary policy.

  • CBK’s efforts to strengthen forex reserves, ensuring import coverage of around 3.7 months.

Economic Interpretation

Monetary Policy Context

The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remains at 9.5%, signaling a restrictive policy stance aimed at curbing inflation (currently at 4.58%).
This has:

• Controlled excessive import demand.

• Supported the shilling’s exchange rate stability.

• Encouraged local production and substitution.

Fiscal & Trade Policy

The National Treasury continues promoting Buy Kenya, Build Kenya initiatives, local manufacturing incentives, and export promotion zones (EPZs).
These policies appear to be bearing fruit, with export values maintaining upward momentum despite global headwinds.

Comparison with 2024 Performance

• Exports are slightly lower year-on-year due to temporary dips in tea and coffee shipments in early 2025.

• However, imports have declined faster, improving Kenya’s overall trade balance by nearly 25% compared to 2024.

DatalytIQs Academy Insight

For learners studying International Trade, Macroeconomics, or Development Economics, this data offers real-world insights into:

• Trade deficit dynamics and their implications for currency stability.

• The impact of monetary policy on imports and exports.

• How diversification in export structure strengthens resilience against global shocks.

It also provides an excellent case for classroom analysis or research projects on:

• Kenya’s terms of trade trends,

• Balance of payments, and

• Export elasticity relative to exchange rate movements.

Policy Outlook and Forecast

Looking ahead, Kenya’s external trade is expected to:

• Maintain moderate growth in exports as global demand for agricultural commodities stabilizes.

• Benefit from regional trade agreements (AfCFTA & EAC expansion), opening new markets.

• Face mild headwinds from high oil import bills and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes.

If current trends persist, Kenya’s 2025 full-year trade deficit could fall below KES 70 billion, marking a key milestone toward external balance sustainability.

Conclusion

Kenya’s foreign trade data underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Exports are gradually recovering, imports are under control, and macroeconomic indicators remain stable.
This environment reflects CBK’s effective policy coordination and a growing ability to withstand global shocks — signaling a positive trajectory for Kenya’s economy in 2025.