A powerful system of ocean currents that regulates the global climate could be heading toward collapse within the next few decades, according to new research.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a massive current that acts like a conveyor belt across the Atlantic Ocean, transports warm water northward and cold water southward, keeping the Northern Hemisphere milder than it otherwise would be. But scientists warn that this delicate balance may be tipping.
A new study suggests that if carbon emissions double between now and 2050, the AMOC could begin to collapse as early as 2055. Even in less extreme scenarios — where emissions stay near current levels — the system could start failing by 2063, researchers found.
The consequences of such a collapse would be dramatic: altered weather patterns, harsher winters in Europe, intensified monsoons in Africa and Asia, and devastating droughts across the Amazon and beyond.
While the most extreme emission pathway may be unlikely, scientists caution that even “middle-of-the-road” warming scenarios carry alarming risks. As the U.N.’s latest climate report shows, global warming of just 2.7°C (4.8°F) above pre-industrial levels could still destabilize one of Earth’s most critical climate regulators.
This study serves as another urgent warning that climate change is not a distant problem — it’s unfolding now, and decisions made in the coming decades could determine the fate of ecosystems, weather, and human societies worldwide.
