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🌾 Kenya’s Agriculture in 2025: Growth, Productivity, and Climate Challenges

Written by

Collins Odhiambo

in

The National Agriculture Production Report (2025) paints a picture of a recovering yet uneven sector.
Agriculture remains Kenya’s economic backbone, contributing roughly 22.5% of GDP in 2024, and employing over 60% of the labor force, either directly or indirectly.

While key cash crops showed strong gains, staple food crops suffered from erratic weather — underlining Kenya’s ongoing struggle with climate-sensitive food systems.

Overall Sector Performance

Year Agriculture GDP Growth (%) Marketed Production (KSh Billion) Sector Share of GDP (%)
2023 7.1 643.0 23.1
2024 4.4 690.0 22.5

Agricultural output grew by 4.4% in 2024, supported by tea, sugarcane, and dairy recovery.
Growth slowed from 7.1% in 2023 due to maize losses, reduced horticultural exports, and input cost constraints.

Crop Performance Summary (2024 vs 2023)

Crop Unit 2023 2024 % Change Comment
Maize Million bags 47.6 44.7 –6.1% Erratic rains lowered yields in key regions (Rift Valley, Eastern).
Wheat ’000 tonnes 309.5 312.2 +0.9% Minor recovery from mechanized farming in Narok & Uasin Gishu.
Rice ’000 tonnes 229.1 282.2 +23.2% Irrigation expansion at Mwea and Ahero boosted output.
Green Leaf Tea ’000 tonnes 2,577.8 2,687.2 +4.2% Favorable rainfall and input subsidy support.
Coffee ’000 tonnes 48.7 49.5 +1.6% Higher cherry prices and cooperative reforms.
Sugarcane ’000 tonnes 5,550.7 9,365.3 +68.7% Drastic recovery after factory reopenings and cane replanting.
Fresh Horticultural Produce ’000 tonnes 468.4 402.2 –14.1% EU market rejections and pest outbreaks affected exports.

Interpretation:
Production gains in high-value cash crops balanced the fall in cereals. The expansion of irrigation and input subsidy programs under the National Agriculture Value Chain Development Project (NAVCDP) proved vital in mitigating weather impacts.

Livestock and Dairy Subsector

Indicator 2023 2024 % Change
Milk Sold Centrally (Mn Litres) 806.6 908.4 +12.6%
Beef Production (’000 Tonnes) 156.1 164.3 +5.3%
Poultry Production (’000 Tonnes) 171.8 182.0 +5.9%
Egg Production (Mn) 2,896.2 3,051.4 +5.4%

Dairy remains Kenya’s strongest-performing livestock segment, supported by:

  • Cooler weather in the Rift Valley and Central Kenya.

  • Increased uptake of artificial insemination (AI) and feed fortification.

  • Government’s Dairy Industry Revitalization Strategy (2024–2028).

Fisheries and Aquaculture

Source 2023 Quantity (Tonnes) 2024 Quantity (Tonnes) % Change Value (KSh Million)
Inland Capture 108,000 109,600 +1.5% 25,480
Marine Capture 8,500 9,200 +8.2% 3,250
Aquaculture 44,800 49,600 +10.7% 10,896

🎣 Fish output increased to 168,400 tonnes (KSh 39.6 billion) — a 5.1% rise — thanks to enhanced fish farming and enforcement against illegal fishing in Lake Victoria.

Climate and Environmental Factors

  • Average annual rainfall: 1,126 mm (↑ from 1,050 mm in 2023).

  • Forest cover: 8.83% of total land mass — still below the 10% constitutional target.

  • Soil degradation: Persistent in semi-arid counties; 26% of arable land classified as moderately degraded.

  • Irrigation area expanded: From 520,000 ha to 570,000 ha (+9.6%).

Climate-smart agriculture programs (CSA) under the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Project (KCSAP) increased resilience, but yield gains were offset by locust infestations and pest resurgence in dry areas.

Regional Contributions to Agricultural Output (2024)

Region % of National Output Key Commodities
Rift Valley 34% Maize, Wheat, Milk
Central 22% Tea, Dairy, Coffee
Western 14% Sugarcane, Fish
Eastern 11% Fruits, Pulses, Livestock
Nyanza 10% Horticulture, Fish
Coastal 9% Coconuts, Cashew, Aquaculture

The Rift Valley and Central regions continued to dominate total production, but Western Kenya’s sugar revival marked one of the year’s standout improvements.

Policy Implications and Economic Insights

Policy Area Observation Recommendation
Food Security Reduced maize and horticultural output affected supply chains. Expand irrigation and drought-resistant seed distribution.
Agro-Industry Linkages Agro-processing remains below potential; 20% of produce is still unprocessed. Incentivize local value addition through tax rebates and credit access.
Market Access EU rejections affected horticulture; limited cold-chain capacity. Strengthen Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate (KEPHIS) standards and invest in cold storage logistics.
Climate Resilience Overreliance on rainfall remains a risk. Scale up CSA and water-harvesting infrastructure.
Financial Inclusion Only 34% of smallholders accessed formal credit in 2024. Expand crop insurance and mobile-based lending models.

Outlook for 2025–2026

Indicator Projection Direction
Agriculture GDP Growth 5.0–5.3% ↑ Moderate recovery expected
Export Earnings (Agri) KSh 1.05 Trillion ↑ Driven by tea and coffee
Irrigated Land Area 600,000 ha ↑ Ongoing NAVCDP expansion
Food Inflation 3.8–4.2% Stable unless drought reemerges
Livestock Output +8–10% Supported by feed subsidy and disease control

Conclusion

Kenya’s agricultural sector in 2024 demonstrated strength in diversity but weakness in dependence.
While traditional cash crops and dairy showed resilience, food staples and horticulture underscored structural issues — rainfall dependency, limited mechanization, and market inefficiencies.

If current policy momentum in irrigation, climate-smart farming, and agribusiness value chains is sustained, 2025–2026 could mark a transition toward modernized, climate-resilient, and export-competitive agriculture.

DatalytIQs Academy Insight

Students and researchers can use this report to:

  • Build agricultural output trend models (2020–2025).

  • Perform sectoral contribution analyses to GDP.

  • Examine linkages between rainfall, production, and inflation using regression modeling.

  • Design policy briefs on Kenya’s path to sustainable agri-industrial transformation.

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